What strange times we have just lived through, massive interventions by government in the economy and huge changes to working practices in a short timeframe. In March, I wrote an article ‘WOW I wonder if the BCP will hold up?’ with my thoughts on the challenges ahead and 6 predictions. In this article I will revisit those predictions and see what worked and what didn’t and also have a look at what I know now that I didn’t know then. Should be fun.
Prediction 1 – How Long?
When we went off site the project team was split, would we be gone for only a few weeks or long term? My thoughts were that I felt I was unlikely that I would finish the assignment back in the office and this situation would be around for a long time rather than 3 weeks.
How did we fair?
Well I definitely nailed this one as a long term issue. Despite the damage to the economy there was never going to be a quick way out of this. Virus pandemics are predictable and there is only one way out of them, everyone catches it and develops an immune reaction to it, either by catching the real thing or giving yourself a ‘safe’ dose by immunisation.
Further thoughts,
In business terms I actually think that we will end up categorising this as a medium term issue rather than a long term issue, it’s likely impact being more than 1 and less than 2 financial years. The longer term lessons to be learned are more likely to centre around government and business creating a response for more ongoing shocks to the economic system.
We already have a looming climate and power emergency, and a likely proliferation of internet banking services in the short term which are not covered by banking guarantees which in turn will expose the financial sector to another boom mis-selling and bust scenario which governments and regulators seem to have little appetite to address. The cynic in me suspects this is because they are in the best position to profit in the medium term.
The rate of occurrences of viral disease mutations like the one which caused Covid-19 also appears to be accelerating over time (H5N1, SARS, MURS) which means we are more likely than not to have to face the next pandemic sooner than historical precedents may suggest.
Prediction 2 – Impending IT Infrastructure Meltdown will make railways look well structured
I think the UK consistently under invests in its infrastructure, I think we may be able to add the Telecoms backbone to the list of essentials we don’t look after enough.
How did we fair?
I am so pleased to say I was wrong on this one. Despite not only a move to home working but also the proliferation of video conferencing this would have been a perfect scenario for the IT backbone to melt and it did not. In fact, it was remarkably resilient even as software companies piled more of more services onto it, broadband and fibre services never made the news. Massive kudos to the ISP community who built and reconfigured these systems to enable people to work effectively. Fantastic result.
Prediction 3 – Remote major system deployment is possible remotely
Given my past experience of delivering in multiple continents let alone living rooms, I predict that we will be able to replicate the look and feel of the original Go live and we will get a successful launch.
How did we fair?
I was fairly confident that this would be achieved, and the huge effort the team put into making it happen did indeed make it a fantastic experience for the business to swap systems and achieve all of it’s aims and outcomes.
One thing which worked even better than the ‘onsite’ experience and will become ‘new normal’ regardless of the situation was the use of live chat groups with the end users and project teams. Traditionally there would have been a triage room or war room for such a complex cut over in order to coordinate post implementation activities. End users, line management and the project teams really reacted well to the interactions in the chat, the written information improved issues description and evidence gathering and ultimately lead to quicker resolution and faster knowledge transfer in the business. We used ‘teams’ but any group collaboration tool would have done as well.
Prediction 4 – The New Normal
The business will surprise itself at how quickly it will stabilise support operations and it achieves a new normal. ‘22 days to make or break a habit’.
How did we fair?
Thoroughly motivated, engaged and professional people don’t need management looking over their shoulder it turns out. This shocked many people, not sure why. This means that the disruption to get to the ‘new normal’ way of working was achieved so very quickly. Even more remarkable as a service team in an ISP when virtually all their customers needed help with enabling remote working and ticket volumes where unbelievably high. What enhances the power of the story. Giving people the tools, structure and then letting them get on with it was that in all that, NPS actually went up from an already high level. Remarkable and definitely something to copy.
Further thoughts
The effort required within HR to reset management focus and redesign business support and team management structures around the front line staff will result in a real sea change to businesses. For new starters, induction and company culture delivery it is going to take a complete re write of the manual without the physical location on the team being set. It is also critical for the cohesion of the business that time is found to replace the social interaction which is lost for not being able to have that coffee or water cooler moment. Expect to see ‘away day’ formats and an increase in ‘social functions’ being used more frequently and at lower levels in the business to help to develop these essential bonds.
Prediction 5 – Scientists become superheros again
The world will surprise itself again at how much and fast it can change when it has an imperative. Scientists will become the new heroes and treatments and vaccines will be completed in weeks when they are given funding to change the world, as in the pace of arms development in a war the human race will find the keys quickly.
How did we fair?
In normal times development happens slowly and costs phenomenal amounts of money and resources. This is a world which has serious challenges for treatment development, a world which is on it’s last antibiotic and that a drug which was licenced 40 years ago and so precious we hardly dare use it. A world where it took 40 years to move the majority of household heating to natural gas (just in time for it to run out in the UK). A world which spent 20 years moving to diesel tech to lower CO2 emissions (only to realise that the KPI you measure needs to be the right one if you are not to get undesirable results). Science has a history of rapid developments in technology when the situation demands it however. Sputnik to Moon landing in 13 years being a simple example.
How amazing is it that there are currently 40 different stage trials worldwide on potencial vaccines for Covid-19. Most will fail, more than 1 will win. Then we have the very easy task of making and delivering over 7 billion doses across the world. Governments, big pharma and small institutions alike are working to make this happen. Processes shortcut, investment decisions made ahead of trial completion on a Risk level basis and suddenly something which takes a decade looks like it will be completed in 18 months. It is quite remarkable and gives me renewed optimism that it is possible for the human race to make the necessary changes required to avoid a climate disaster if only the leadership can come together and prioritise the situation as the urgent matter it is.
The other thing which struck me was the success of cross fertilisation of ideas and re appraisal of old drug types. It is often missed when people look for new specific answers that by looking around more holistically at what is already known ideas and tools can be reused to great effect. The story on Dexamethasone a relatively cheap and plentiful drug is a great advert for this kind of approach to a problem as one part of a strategy.
Prediction 6 – Remote working here to stay
Home working will become a permanent change to our working lives and ‘Teams’ is finally going to make video conferencing the norm rather than a reluctant exception.
How did we fair?
I was already well on my way to looking to remove commuting from my life. This situation has completely reconfirmed this and we all need to work to spend less of our time in traveling to and from work. It is such a waste of time and such a waste of societies resources. We can also physically see the improvement in the environment with the reduction in transport of all types in just one summer. Work without travelling or live where you work, is a trend which we should all be encouraged to keep. I will be re doubling my efforts.
Teams was good before the lockdown but has come on leaps and bounds in functionality in the last 6 months. The world has universally adopted ‘zoom’ as the word which people use for this technology, though when I challenge people on the actual platform I get a myriad of answers in that same way that for personal use almost all people use ‘FaceTime’ despite most of them not actually owning an apple. It’s a common thing and has been going on forever, I often use my Dyson to do the Hoovering.